UNH · expected move by expiry
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is priced to move 3.3% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±3.31% move (about $13.01) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 377.34 to 403.36 from the last price of 392.95. Max pain for that expiry is 397.50.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
Last
392.95 -2.10 (-0.5%)
Next expiry move
±3.31% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.66
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:53:29 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:53:29 AM ET
expected range last price 392.95 max painAxis 349 to 424, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
377.34
403.36
Expected move±3.31%±$13.01
Max pain397.501.2% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.66
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
367.81
409.71
Expected move±5.33%±$20.95
Max pain400.001.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside100%put/call 0.78
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
363.35
412.69
Expected move±6.28%±$24.67
Max pain370.005.8% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.91
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
357.70
416.45
Expected move±7.48%±$29.38
Max pain395.000.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.94
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
353.49
420.44
Expected move±8.52%±$33.48
Max pain400.001.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.56
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.12 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
392.50 / 402.50
Heaviest put open interest sits at 392.50 and heaviest call open interest at 402.50. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the UNH expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for UNH on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that UNH closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 392.95. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±8.52%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±3.31%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/UNH.
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