MSFT · expected move by expiry
Microsoft is priced to move 1.6% by 2026-Aug-31.
Options price a ±1.59% move (about $8.18) by 2026-Aug-31 (Mon), a range of 503.72 to 520.07 from the last price of 513.53. Max pain for that expiry is 495.00.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
Last
513.53 +8.47 (1.7%)
Next expiry move
±1.59% 2 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.52
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:37:50 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:37:50 AM ET
expected range last price 513.53 max painAxis 460 to 557, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Aug-31Mon, 2 days
503.72
520.07
Expected move±1.59%±$8.18
Max pain495.003.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside75%put/call 0.52
2026-Sep-02Wed, 4 days
497.60
524.15
Expected move±2.59%±$13.28
Max pain485.005.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.25
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
492.60
527.49
Expected move±3.40%±$17.44
Max pain465.009.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.58
2026-Sep-09Wed, 11 days
474.80
552.26
Expected move±7.54%±$38.73
Max pain513.530.0% above last price
Odds of closing inside100%put/call 0.00
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
485.74
532.06
Expected move±4.51%±$23.16
Max pain482.506.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.42
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score -0.14 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
512.50 / 515.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 512.50 and heaviest call open interest at 515.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Reversal Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the MSFT expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for MSFT on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that MSFT closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 513.53. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-11 range (±4.51%) is wider than the 2026-Aug-31 range (±1.59%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/MSFT.
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