PLTR · expected move by expiry
Palantir Technologies is priced to move 6.1% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±6.09% move (about $11.35) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 172.68 to 195.37 from the last price of 186.29. Max pain for that expiry is 175.00.
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
Last
186.29 +0.36 (0.2%)
Next expiry move
±6.09% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.71
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:38:52 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:38:52 AM ET
expected range last price 186.29 max painAxis 136 to 211, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
172.68
195.37
Expected move±6.09%±$11.35
Max pain175.006.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.71
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
167.94
198.53
Expected move±8.21%±$15.29
Max pain175.006.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.37
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
163.15
201.72
Expected move±10.35%±$19.28
Max pain140.0024.8% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.97
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
158.75
204.65
Expected move±12.32%±$22.95
Max pain172.507.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.90
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
154.88
207.23
Expected move±14.05%±$26.17
Max pain175.006.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.04
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Bearish - options flow points to downside Score -0.49 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
185.00 / 187.50
Heaviest put open interest sits at 185.00 and heaviest call open interest at 187.50. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
No Active Regime
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the PLTR expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for PLTR on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that PLTR closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 186.29. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±14.05%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±6.09%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/PLTR.
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