SMCI · expected move by expiry
Super Micro Computer is priced to move 9.4% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±9.41% move (about $3.49) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 32.89 to 39.87 from the last price of 37.08. Max pain for that expiry is 33.00.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Last
37.08 -1.38 (-3.6%)
Next expiry move
±9.41% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.21
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:55:14 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:55:14 AM ET
expected range last price 37.08 max painAxis 28 to 46, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
32.89
39.87
Expected move±9.41%±$3.49
Max pain33.0011.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.21
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
31.57
40.75
Expected move±12.37%±$4.59
Max pain35.005.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.39
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
30.03
41.78
Expected move±15.85%±$5.88
Max pain34.008.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.69
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
29.29
43.52
Expected move±19.19%±$7.11
Max pain36.002.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.62
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
29.04
45.12
Expected move±21.69%±$8.04
Max pain36.002.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.17
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Bearish - options flow points to downside Score -0.45 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
35.00 / 38.50
Heaviest put open interest sits at 35.00 and heaviest call open interest at 38.50. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the SMCI expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for SMCI on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that SMCI closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 37.08. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±21.69%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±9.41%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/SMCI.
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