SPY · expected move by expiry
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is priced to move 0.8% by 2026-Aug-31.
Options price a ±0.77% move (about $5.89) by 2026-Aug-31 (Mon), a range of 762.31 to 774.09 from the last price of 769.38. Max pain for that expiry is 760.00.
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Last
769.38 -1.72 (-0.2%)
Next expiry move
±0.77% 2 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.38
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:39:03 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:39:03 AM ET
expected range last price 769.38 max painAxis 754 to 780, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Aug-31Mon, 2 days
762.31
774.09
Expected move±0.77%±$5.89
Max pain760.001.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside86%put/call 1.38
2026-Sep-01Tue, 3 days
760.19
775.51
Expected move±1.00%±$7.66
Max pain766.000.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside82%put/call 0.83
2026-Sep-02Wed, 4 days
758.13
776.88
Expected move±1.22%±$9.37
Max pain766.000.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside80%put/call 1.20
2026-Sep-03Thu, 5 days
757.39
777.37
Expected move±1.30%±$9.99
Max pain769.000.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside76%put/call 1.18
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
755.27
778.79
Expected move±1.53%±$11.76
Max pain765.000.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside76%put/call 1.06
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Lean bearish - moderate negative flow Score -0.23 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
770.00 pin
Heaviest put open interest sits at 770.00 and heaviest call open interest at 770.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Reversal Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the SPY expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for SPY on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that SPY closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 769.38. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-04 range (±1.53%) is wider than the 2026-Aug-31 range (±0.77%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/SPY.
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