The options market's own forecast, one expiry at a time.
Type a ticker. The headline becomes that stock's expected move, and the table below it shows the range for every upcoming expiry, with max pain and the probability of staying inside.
How the range is calculated
Every row is one standard deviation, so "stay inside" means the same 68% idea on every expiry.
move = IV × √(days / 365) (8 days and beyond)
The straddle price is weighted by volume and open interest across strikes within 2% of the last price. Bounds are skewed toward the side where out-of-the-money options cost more. Max pain is the strike where option holders collect the least at expiry.
Earnings this week
Notable reports this week, US Eastern time. Open one for its expected move into the print.
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Common questions
What is the expected move of a stock?
The price range the options market implies for a stock by a given expiry. It is reported here as one standard deviation: roughly a 68% chance of closing inside the range and 32% outside. It comes from at-the-money option prices, not from a forecast.
Why one standard deviation and not the straddle price?
The at-the-money straddle costs about 0.8 standard deviations, so quoting it directly understates the range. Dividing by 0.7979 turns it into the same one-standard-deviation quantity the implied-volatility formula gives, which keeps short and long expiries comparable.
What is max pain?
The strike where the total intrinsic value paid to option holders at expiry is smallest, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it into expiry because of dealer hedging. Treat it as a reference level, not a prediction.
What does "stay inside" mean?
The model probability that the stock closes between the lower and upper bound at expiry, using a lognormal distribution with the chain's implied volatility. It is close to 68% by construction; it moves when skew widens one side.
Is the data real-time?
No. Option chains are delayed at least 15 minutes. Results are cached for a few minutes during market hours and longer outside them; the panel shows the chain timestamp it used.
Can I get the numbers as JSON?
Yes. Open optionsmovement.com/api/expected-move/AAPL (swap in any ticker) and you get the same table as JSON: expected move, range, max pain, put/call ratio and odds for every expiry. No key or signup needed, up to 20 requests a minute. If you publish something built on it, please credit optionsmovement.com with a link.