GLD · expected move by expiry
SPDR Gold Shares is priced to move 1.8% by 2026-Aug-31.
Options price a ±1.84% move (about $7.51) by 2026-Aug-31 (Mon), a range of 399.80 to 414.82 from the last price of 408.81. Max pain for that expiry is 416.00.
GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
Last
408.81 -13.79 (-3.3%)
Next expiry move
±1.84% 2 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.74
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:24 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:24 AM ET
expected range last price 408.81 max painAxis 391 to 424, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Aug-31Mon, 2 days
399.80
414.82
Expected move±1.84%±$7.51
Max pain416.001.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside80%put/call 0.74
2026-Sep-01Tue, 3 days
396.99
416.69
Expected move±2.41%±$9.85
Max pain422.003.2% above last price
Odds of closing inside74%put/call 1.19
2026-Sep-02Wed, 4 days
395.73
417.53
Expected move±2.67%±$10.90
Max pain421.003.0% above last price
Odds of closing inside74%put/call 0.68
2026-Sep-03Thu, 5 days
393.67
418.90
Expected move±3.09%±$12.62
Max pain422.003.2% above last price
Odds of closing inside71%put/call 2.83
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
392.32
419.80
Expected move±3.36%±$13.74
Max pain410.000.3% above last price
Odds of closing inside72%put/call 0.42
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.12 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
409.00 / 420.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 409.00 and heaviest call open interest at 420.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the GLD expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for GLD on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that GLD closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 408.81. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-04 range (±3.36%) is wider than the 2026-Aug-31 range (±1.84%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/GLD.
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