In October 2026, the price finished inside the expected range 61% of the time.
Every day we save the expected move this site shows for each stock and expiry date, then check it against the closing price once the date passes. This report covers every expiry date in October 2026: 12,494 forecasts on 456 stocks and ETFs across 22 expiry dates, from 2026-Oct-01 to 2026-Oct-30. If options were priced exactly right, about 68% would finish inside the range.
On average stocks moved 117% as much as their options priced in, so options were underpriced this month: moves ran bigger than the options expected, which favoured option buyers. When a price did leave its range it went up 2,037 times and down 2,834 times.
How often the closing price on expiry day was inside the range we showed. Correctly priced options would give about 68%.
How big the moves were against what options priced in. 100% means priced right. Stocks moved 7.51% on average against an expected range of ±8.06%.
When the price finished outside the range, which way it went.
By how far ahead the forecast was made
A forecast made the day before expiry and one made a month ahead are different forecasts, so each is checked on its own. Days are calendar days from the forecast to the expiry date.
| Days before expiry | Forecasts | Stayed in range | Expected move | Average move | Moved vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day938 forecasts | 938 | 70% | ±3.38% | 2.57% | 95% |
| 2 to 7 days4,033 forecasts | 4,033 | 66% | ±4.85% | 4.05% | 105% |
| 8 to 14 days3,382 forecasts | 3,382 | 62% | ±8.12% | 7.38% | 114% |
| 15 to 35 days4,141 forecasts | 4,141 | 53% | ±12.20% | 12.11% | 124% |
Expiry date by expiry date
Each row is one expiry date and every forecast saved for it, from a month ahead to the day before. A week with a big surprise shows up as a low "stayed in range" figure.
| Expiry date | Stocks | Stayed in range | Moved vs expected | Left the range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-02650 forecasts | 207 | 84% | 68% | 69 up, 34 down |
| 2026-Oct-0594 forecasts | 22 | 80% | 74% | 19 up, 0 down |
| 2026-Oct-07123 forecasts | 22 | 78% | 81% | 21 up, 6 down |
| 2026-Oct-091486 forecasts | 273 | 72% | 91% | 280 up, 140 down |
| 2026-Oct-12112 forecasts | 24 | 68% | 107% | 9 up, 27 down |
| 2026-Oct-14125 forecasts | 20 | 62% | 112% | 5 up, 42 down |
| 2026-Oct-162472 forecasts | 419 | 51% | 136% | 419 up, 791 down |
| 2026-Oct-19110 forecasts | 22 | 75% | 86% | 10 up, 17 down |
| 2026-Oct-21127 forecasts | 20 | 80% | 68% | 19 up, 6 down |
| 2026-Oct-233013 forecasts | 327 | 57% | 123% | 528 up, 768 down |
| 2026-Oct-26136 forecasts | 20 | 75% | 81% | 12 up, 22 down |
| 2026-Oct-28120 forecasts | 20 | 67% | 105% | 31 up, 9 down |
| 2026-Oct-303720 forecasts | 344 | 59% | 116% | 589 up, 948 down |
SPY, QQQ and IWM in October 2026
The three index funds most traders watch, with every expiry date they had in the month.
Whose options were overpriced, and whose were underpriced
Stocks with at least 3 expiry dates in October 2026 (309 qualify), scored once per expiry date so one surprise does not count many times, and adjusted for how far ahead each forecast was made. 100% means the stock moved as much as its options expected.
The biggest surprises
For each stock and expiry date we take the forecast made closest to a week ahead, the one most people would have looked at, and rank the misses by how far the close landed against the expected move.
| Stock | Expiry date | Expected move | Actual move | Times the range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOVAforecast 2 days ahead | 2026-Oct-30 | ±7.72% | -42.74% | 5.5x |
| TMUSforecast 1 day ahead | 2026-Oct-09 | ±2.90% | -13.27% | 4.6x |
| VZforecast 1 day ahead | 2026-Oct-09 | ±2.36% | -10.14% | 4.3x |
| GMforecast 7 days ahead | 2026-Oct-30 | ±3.67% | +14.89% | 4.1x |
| ZSforecast 7 days ahead | 2026-Oct-23 | ±6.27% | +23.04% | 3.7x |
| NOWforecast 7 days ahead | 2026-Oct-30 | ±10.02% | -32.85% | 3.3x |
| SKHYforecast 7 days ahead | 2026-Oct-16 | ±6.31% | -19.25% | 3.1x |
| PANWforecast 7 days ahead | 2026-Oct-16 | ±6.12% | -18.39% | 3.0x |
The biggest misses are usually earnings reports or company news. The expected move prices the typical path, not the surprise.
Did max pain pin the 2026-Oct-16 monthly expiry?
Of 400 stocks with a max pain figure the trading day before the monthly expiry, 9% closed within 1% of it. For comparison, 18% closed within 1% of their own price that day, and max pain was nearer the close than that price for 31% of them.
Assuming the price would stay put did better than max pain. One expiry date is not a study; see today's figures on the max pain page.
How this report is put together
- It counts every forecast saved for an expiry date in October 2026, checked against that date's closing price. The range is one standard deviation, the same one shown on every stock page.
- Forecasts saved on expiry day itself are not counted, and nothing before 2026-Sep-28, when the current calculation started.
- "Moved vs expected" compares the average move with 80% of the expected range, what a correctly priced range gives on average. The methodology page has the formulas.
- The report is built 3 days after the month ends, from US listed-options market data delayed at least 15 minutes. It is not a trade recommendation.
- The running record since 2026-Sep-28 is on the track record page, as JSON at /api/track-record.