IWM · expected move and max pain by expiry
iShares Russell 2000 ETF is priced to move 1.3% by 2026-Oct-14, with max pain at 278.00.
Options price a ±1.25% move (about $3.47) by 2026-Oct-14 (Wed), a range of 273.23 to 280.17 from the last price of 276.70. Max pain for that expiry is 278.00.
IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Last
276.70 -1.20 (-0.4%)
Next expiry move
±1.25% 1 day
Implied vol
24.0% 1 days
Put / call
0.70
Pre-market
Fetched 2026-10-14, 04:36:50 AM ET
Fetched 2026-10-14, 04:36:50 AM ET
expected range last price 276.70 max painAxis 270 to 284, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-14Wed, 1 day
273.23
280.17
Expected move±1.25%±$3.47
Max pain278.000.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.70
2026-Oct-15Thu, 1 day
272.38
281.02
Expected move±1.56%±$4.32
Max pain278.000.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.59
2026-Oct-16Fri, 2 days
271.58
281.82
Expected move±1.85%±$5.12
Max pain283.002.3% above last price
Odds of closing inside67%put/call 1.04
2026-Oct-19Mon, 5 days
270.92
282.48
Expected move±2.09%±$5.78
Max pain278.000.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.77
2026-Oct-20Tue, 6 days
270.44
282.96
Expected move±2.26%±$6.26
Max pain279.000.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.65
Key levels from open interest
255.00 / 285.00
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 255.00 and the heaviest call open interest at 285.00, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
IWM max pain by expiry
iShares Russell 2000 ETF's max pain for 2026-Oct-14 is 278.00, 0.5% above the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-14 Wed | 278.00 | +0.5% | 0.70 |
| 2026-Oct-15 Thu | 278.00 | +0.5% | 0.59 |
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 283.00 | +2.3% | 1.04 |
| 2026-Oct-19 Mon | 278.00 | +0.5% | 0.77 |
| 2026-Oct-20 Tue | 279.00 | +0.8% | 0.65 |
IWM put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Oct-14 expiry is 0.70: close to even between puts and calls. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Stayed in range, 45 forecasts
91%
IWM finished inside the expected range we showed 91% of the time, across every forecast checked since 2026-Sep-29. Correctly priced options would give about 68%; higher means its options expected bigger moves than happened.
Moved vs expected
64%
How big IWM's moves were compared with what its options priced in; 100% means priced right, below means overpriced. On average it moved 0.85% against an expected range of ±1.67%. Left the range: 0 up, 4 down. How this is worked out.
By days before expiry
1 day: 89% stayed in range (9)
2 to 7 days: 92% stayed in range (36)
2 to 7 days: 92% stayed in range (36)
Forecasts grouped by how many days before expiry they were made. Machine-readable: /api/history/IWM; sitewide: track record.
Reading the IWM expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for IWM on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that IWM closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 276.70. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-20 range (±2.26%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-14 range (±1.25%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/IWM. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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