AAPL · expected move by expiry
Apple is priced to move 1.6% by 2026-Aug-31.
Options price a ±1.57% move (about $5.01) by 2026-Aug-31 (Mon), a range of 314.69 to 324.71 from the last price of 319.70. Max pain for that expiry is 315.00.
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Last
319.70 +5.12 (1.6%)
Next expiry move
±1.57% 2 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.63
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:25:46 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:25:46 AM ET
expected range last price 319.70 max painAxis 292 to 341, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Aug-31Mon, 2 days
314.69
324.71
Expected move±1.57%±$5.01
Max pain315.001.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside79%put/call 0.63
2026-Sep-02Wed, 4 days
311.63
327.77
Expected move±2.52%±$8.07
Max pain310.003.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside72%put/call 0.39
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
309.26
330.14
Expected move±3.27%±$10.44
Max pain310.003.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside73%put/call 0.46
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
304.81
334.59
Expected move±4.66%±$14.89
Max pain305.004.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.37
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
301.26
338.14
Expected move±5.77%±$18.44
Max pain295.007.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.41
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.09 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
320.00 pin
Heaviest put open interest sits at 320.00 and heaviest call open interest at 320.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Reversal Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the AAPL expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for AAPL on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that AAPL closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 319.70. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-18 range (±5.77%) is wider than the 2026-Aug-31 range (±1.57%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/AAPL.
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