The price finished inside the expected range 62% of the time.
Every day we save the expected move this site shows for each stock and expiry date. Once the expiry date passes, we check each saved forecast against the closing price. So far that is 8732 forecasts on 443 stocks across 20 expiry dates, from 2026-Sep-29 to 2026-Oct-26. If options were priced exactly right, about 68% would finish inside the range. More than that means options expected bigger moves than actually happened.
How often the closing price on expiry day was inside the range we showed. Correctly priced options would give about 68%.
How big the moves were compared with what the options priced in. 100% means priced right; below 100% means stocks moved less than expected, so options were overpriced. On average stocks moved 6.61% against an expected range of ±7.15%. How this is worked out.
When the price finished outside the range, which way it went. A lopsided split means the market mostly rose or mostly fell over this period.
By how far ahead the forecast was made
A forecast made the day before expiry and one made a month ahead are different forecasts, so each is checked separately. Days are calendar days from the day of the forecast to the expiry date.
| Days before expiry | Forecasts | Stayed in range | Expected move | Average move | Moved vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day788 forecasts | 788 | 75% | ±3.38% | 2.19% | 81% |
| 2 to 7 days3334 forecasts | 3334 | 68% | ±4.83% | 3.84% | 99% |
| 8 to 14 days2553 forecasts | 2553 | 59% | ±8.02% | 7.69% | 120% |
| 15 to 35 days2057 forecasts | 2057 | 53% | ±11.29% | 11.47% | 127% |
Which stocks' options were overpriced, and which were underpriced
The last column shows how big each stock's moves were compared with what its options priced in:
- 100%: the stock moved as much as its options expected. The options were priced right.
- 25%: the stock moved only a quarter as much as expected. The options were overpriced, which suits people who sell options.
- 150%: the stock moved one and a half times as much as expected. The options were underpriced, which suits people who buy options.
"Stayed in range" is how often the stock finished inside the expected range we showed beforehand; about 68% is what correctly priced options would give.
How we keep it fair
- A stock is listed once it has at least 4 expiry dates checked in the last 6 weeks. 211 stocks qualify.
- We save a forecast every day, but every forecast for one expiry date is checked against the same closing price. So we score each expiry date once and average across dates. A surprise jump, such as an earnings shock, counts as one date instead of once for every day we saved a forecast.
- Options that expire tomorrow tend to be more overpriced than options a month away. We allow for that, so a stock isn't ranked just because most of its options expire soon.
How we check the forecasts
Every day, for each stock we track, we save the latest price and the expected range for each upcoming expiry date. Once an expiry date passes, we fetch that day's closing price and check every saved forecast against it: did the price finish inside the range, and how far did it move from the price when the forecast was saved?
- The range is the same one shown everywhere on the site: one standard deviation, a range the stock should finish inside about two times in three.
- Each move is measured from the price when the forecast was saved, not from the day before.
- The record starts on 2026-Sep-28. Before that, a calculation error made the expected move 4 to 24% too wide, so older forecasts are kept but not counted.
- Forecasts saved on expiry day itself are not counted. By the time we save them the closing price is often already known, so they would count as easy wins.
- A stock's own page shows its record once at least 10 of its forecasts have been checked. Two results say nothing.
- This covers a short period that grows every day. A calm month makes options look overpriced; a sudden shock makes them look underpriced. Keep the period in mind.
- Closing prices come from the same delayed public data as everything else here. Nothing on this page is a trade recommendation.
How "moved vs expected" is worked out
The expected range is deliberately wider than a typical move. When options are priced exactly right, the average move, up or down, comes to about 80% of the expected range (the exact figure is the square root of 2 divided by pi, 0.798). So we compare each stock's average move with 80% of its expected range. That way 100% means the options were priced right, above 100% means they were underpriced, and below 100% means they were overpriced.
The same figures are available as JSON at /api/track-record, and for each stock at /api/history/SYMBOL. The formulas are on the methodology page, and the guide to expected versus actual moves explains why stocks usually move less than their options price in.