VALE · expected move by expiry
Vale S.A. is priced to move 4.8% by 2026-Sep-18.
Options price a ±4.78% move (about $0.73) by 2026-Sep-18 (Fri), a range of 14.36 to 15.81 from the last price of 15.23. Max pain for that expiry is 14.00.
VALE
Vale S.A.
Last
15.23 -0.05 (-0.3%)
Next expiry move
±4.78% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.78
Weekend
Fetched 2026-09-12, 06:49:40 PM ET
Fetched 2026-09-12, 06:49:40 PM ET
expected range last price 15.23 max painAxis 13 to 17, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-18Fri, 6 days
14.36
15.81
Expected move±4.78%±$0.73
Max pain14.008.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 1.78
2026-Sep-25Fri, 13 days
14.04
16.02
Expected move±6.52%±$0.99
Max pain15.001.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.48
2026-Oct-02Fri, 20 days
13.45
16.42
Expected move±9.73%±$1.48
Max pain15.001.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.79
2026-Oct-09Fri, 27 days
12.91
16.77
Expected move±12.67%±$1.93
Max pain15.001.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.95
2026-Oct-16Fri, 34 days
13.48
16.81
Expected move±10.92%±$1.66
Max pain15.001.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 2.35
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Lean bearish - moderate negative flow Score -0.32 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
15.00 / 15.50
Heaviest put open interest sits at 15.00 and heaviest call open interest at 15.50. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Technical Breakout / Breakdown
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
VALE max pain by expiry
Vale S.A.'s max pain for 2026-Sep-18 is 14.00, 8.1% below the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Sep-18 Fri | 14.00 | -8.1% | 1.78 |
| 2026-Sep-25 Fri | 15.00 | -1.5% | 0.48 |
| 2026-Oct-02 Fri | 15.00 | -1.5% | 0.79 |
| 2026-Oct-09 Fri | 15.00 | -1.5% | 0.95 |
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 15.00 | -1.5% | 2.35 |
VALE put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Sep-18 expiry is 1.78: above 1, so puts outnumber calls on that date. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not.
Track record, 16 settled readings
94% inside
VALE closed inside its published expected range 94% of the time across every reading stored since 2026-09-04. One standard deviation should land near 68%; higher means the options were rich.
Realised vs expected
31%
The realised move averaged 1.21% against an expected ±3.91%. Breaches: 1 through the top, 0 through the bottom.
By days to expiry
2 to 7 days: 100% inside (7)
8 to 14 days: 100% inside (5)
8 to 14 days: 100% inside (5)
Readings grouped by how far before expiry they were taken. Machine-readable: /api/history/VALE; sitewide: track record.
Reading the VALE expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for VALE on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that VALE closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 15.23. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-16 range (±10.92%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-18 range (±4.78%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/VALE. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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