NFLX · expected move by expiry
Netflix is priced to move 4.0% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±4.03% move (about $3.29) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 77.77 to 84.35 from the last price of 81.72. Max pain for that expiry is 78.00.
NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
Last
81.72 +1.88 (2.4%)
Next expiry move
±4.03% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.30
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:39:28 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:39:28 AM ET
expected range last price 81.72 max painAxis 72 to 90, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
77.77
84.35
Expected move±4.03%±$3.29
Max pain78.004.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.30
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
76.36
85.30
Expected move±5.47%±$4.47
Max pain78.004.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.33
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
74.90
86.27
Expected move±6.96%±$5.69
Max pain78.004.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.94
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
74.05
87.94
Expected move±8.50%±$6.94
Max pain80.002.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.44
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
73.32
89.00
Expected move±9.59%±$7.84
Max pain79.003.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.61
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score -0.06 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
81.00 / 82.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 81.00 and heaviest call open interest at 82.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Reversal Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the NFLX expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for NFLX on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that NFLX closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 81.72. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±9.59%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±4.03%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/NFLX.
Other tickers