COIN · expected move by expiry
Coinbase Global is priced to move 8.2% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±8.17% move (about $14.60) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 161.12 to 190.32 from the last price of 178.64. Max pain for that expiry is 177.50.
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
Last
178.64 -12.08 (-6.3%)
Next expiry move
±8.17% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.41
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:42:36 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:42:36 AM ET
expected range last price 178.64 max painAxis 138 to 214, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
161.12
190.32
Expected move±8.17%±$14.60
Max pain177.500.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.41
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
154.68
194.62
Expected move±11.18%±$19.97
Max pain170.004.8% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.65
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
147.89
199.14
Expected move±14.35%±$25.63
Max pain170.004.8% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.86
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
144.80
205.09
Expected move±16.87%±$30.14
Max pain162.509.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.82
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
142.17
209.96
Expected move±18.97%±$33.89
Max pain185.003.6% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.41
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Lean bearish - moderate negative flow Score -0.38 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
175.00 / 195.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 175.00 and heaviest call open interest at 195.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the COIN expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for COIN on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that COIN closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 178.64. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±18.97%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±8.17%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/COIN.
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