XLF · expected move by expiry
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF is priced to move 1.0% by 2026-Aug-31.
Options price a ±1.00% move (about $0.58) by 2026-Aug-31 (Mon), a range of 57.40 to 58.55 from the last price of 58.09. Max pain for that expiry is 58.00.
XLF
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF
Last
58.09 +0.21 (0.4%)
Next expiry move
±1.00% 2 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.88
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:53:34 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:53:34 AM ET
expected range last price 58.09 max painAxis 57 to 60, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Aug-31Mon, 2 days
57.40
58.55
Expected move±1.00%±$0.58
Max pain58.000.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside73%put/call 1.88
2026-Sep-01Tue, 3 days
56.91
58.87
Expected move±1.69%±$0.98
Max pain58.000.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside79%put/call 0.33
2026-Sep-02Wed, 4 days
56.80
59.38
Expected move±2.22%±$1.29
Max pain58.000.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside78%put/call 0.32
2026-Sep-03Thu, 5 days
56.92
58.87
Expected move±1.68%±$0.97
Max pain58.000.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.59
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
56.79
58.96
Expected move±1.87%±$1.09
Max pain57.501.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside66%put/call 1.44
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.04 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
58.00 pin
Heaviest put open interest sits at 58.00 and heaviest call open interest at 58.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the XLF expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for XLF on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that XLF closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 58.09. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-04 range (±1.87%) is wider than the 2026-Aug-31 range (±1.00%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/XLF.
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