MS · expected move by expiry
Morgan Stanley is priced to move 3.7% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±3.66% move (about $7.86) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 205.34 to 221.06 from the last price of 214.77. Max pain for that expiry is 215.00.
MS
Morgan Stanley
Last
214.77 -0.09 (-0.0%)
Next expiry move
±3.66% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.06
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:46:38 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:46:38 AM ET
expected range last price 214.77 max painAxis 192 to 238, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
205.34
221.06
Expected move±3.66%±$7.86
Max pain215.000.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.06
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
201.18
223.83
Expected move±5.27%±$11.32
Max pain215.000.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.27
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
197.60
226.21
Expected move±6.66%±$14.30
Max pain200.006.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.44
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
196.36
229.90
Expected move±7.81%±$16.77
Max pain215.000.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.58
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
194.11
235.43
Expected move±9.62%±$20.66
Max pain205.004.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.65
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Lean bearish - moderate negative flow Score -0.24 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
212.50 / 215.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 212.50 and heaviest call open interest at 215.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Technical Breakout / Breakdown
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the MS expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for MS on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that MS closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 214.77. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±9.62%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±3.66%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/MS.
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