QQQ · expected move by expiry
Invesco QQQ Trust is priced to move 1.0% by 2026-Aug-31.
Options price a ±1.01% move (about $7.23) by 2026-Aug-31 (Mon), a range of 707.77 to 722.24 from the last price of 716.45. Max pain for that expiry is 700.00.
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust
Last
716.45 -4.66 (-0.6%)
Next expiry move
±1.01% 2 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.14
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:42:11 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 12:42:11 AM ET
expected range last price 716.45 max painAxis 696 to 731, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Aug-31Mon, 2 days
707.77
722.24
Expected move±1.01%±$7.23
Max pain700.002.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside80%put/call 1.14
2026-Sep-01Tue, 3 days
704.99
724.09
Expected move±1.33%±$9.55
Max pain714.000.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside76%put/call 1.07
2026-Sep-02Wed, 4 days
702.65
725.65
Expected move±1.61%±$11.50
Max pain715.000.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside74%put/call 1.81
2026-Sep-03Thu, 5 days
700.41
727.15
Expected move±1.87%±$13.37
Max pain715.000.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside72%put/call 1.55
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
697.97
728.77
Expected move±2.15%±$15.40
Max pain715.000.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside72%put/call 1.15
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Lean bearish - moderate negative flow Score -0.22 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
715.00 / 718.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 715.00 and heaviest call open interest at 718.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the QQQ expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for QQQ on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that QQQ closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 716.45. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-04 range (±2.15%) is wider than the 2026-Aug-31 range (±1.01%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/QQQ.
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