SHOP · expected move by expiry
Shopify is priced to move 5.9% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±5.88% move (about $8.99) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 142.11 to 160.09 from the last price of 152.90. Max pain for that expiry is 150.00.
SHOP
Shopify Inc.
Last
152.90 -1.43 (-0.9%)
Next expiry move
±5.88% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.49
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:32 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:32 AM ET
expected range last price 152.90 max painAxis 122 to 179, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
142.11
160.09
Expected move±5.88%±$8.99
Max pain150.001.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside66%put/call 1.49
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
137.07
163.45
Expected move±8.63%±$13.19
Max pain145.005.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.37
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
132.73
166.35
Expected move±10.99%±$16.81
Max pain125.0018.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.54
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
132.73
173.07
Expected move±13.19%±$20.17
Max pain150.001.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.36
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
129.88
175.92
Expected move±15.05%±$23.02
Max pain136.0011.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.52
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Bearish - options flow points to downside Score -0.68 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
152.50 / 155.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 152.50 and heaviest call open interest at 155.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Technical Breakout / Breakdown
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the SHOP expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for SHOP on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that SHOP closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 152.90. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±15.05%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±5.88%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/SHOP.
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