ARM · expected move by expiry
Arm Holdings is priced to move 8.1% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±8.14% move (about $19.46) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 215.75 to 254.67 from the last price of 239.05. Max pain for that expiry is 255.00.
ARM
Arm Holdings plc
Last
239.05 -16.16 (-6.3%)
Next expiry move
±8.14% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.76
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:46:40 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:46:40 AM ET
expected range last price 239.05 max painAxis 189 to 289, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
215.75
254.67
Expected move±8.14%±$19.46
Max pain255.006.7% above last price
Odds of closing inside71%put/call 0.76
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
207.70
260.79
Expected move±11.10%±$26.54
Max pain265.0010.9% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.08
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
198.78
265.90
Expected move±14.04%±$33.56
Max pain230.003.8% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.98
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
199.73
278.37
Expected move±16.45%±$39.32
Max pain265.0010.9% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 2.24
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
194.76
283.34
Expected move±18.53%±$44.29
Max pain255.006.7% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 12.92
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.10 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
235.00 / 250.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 235.00 and heaviest call open interest at 250.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the ARM expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for ARM on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that ARM closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 239.05. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±18.53%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±8.14%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/ARM.
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