PURR · expected move by expiry
Hyperliquid Strategies is priced to move 13.2% by 2026-Sep-18.
Options price a ±13.21% move (about $1.53) by 2026-Sep-18 (Fri), a range of 9.77 to 12.84 from the last price of 11.61. Max pain for that expiry is 7.00.
PURR
Hyperliquid Strategies Inc.
Last
11.61 +0.60 (5.4%)
Next expiry move
±13.21% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.46
Weekend
Fetched 2026-09-12, 06:50:03 PM ET
Fetched 2026-09-12, 06:50:03 PM ET
expected range last price 11.61 max painAxis 7 to 16, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-18Fri, 6 days
9.77
12.84
Expected move±13.21%±$1.53
Max pain7.0039.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside72%put/call 0.46
2026-Sep-25Fri, 13 days
9.00
13.35
Expected move±18.73%±$2.17
Max pain11.500.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.88
2026-Oct-02Fri, 20 days
8.39
13.79
Expected move±23.26%±$2.70
Max pain10.509.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.33
2026-Oct-09Fri, 27 days
8.58
14.64
Expected move±26.09%±$3.03
Max pain11.500.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 2.35
2026-Oct-16Fri, 34 days
8.10
15.12
Expected move±30.24%±$3.51
Max pain13.0012.0% above last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.33
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score -0.18 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
11.50 / 12.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 11.50 and heaviest call open interest at 12.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Trend Ignition
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
PURR max pain by expiry
Hyperliquid Strategies's max pain for 2026-Sep-18 is 7.00, 39.7% below the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Sep-18 Fri | 7.00 | -39.7% | 0.46 |
| 2026-Sep-25 Fri | 11.50 | -0.9% | 0.88 |
| 2026-Oct-02 Fri | 10.50 | -9.6% | 0.33 |
| 2026-Oct-09 Fri | 11.50 | -0.9% | 2.35 |
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 13.00 | +12.0% | 0.33 |
PURR put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Sep-18 expiry is 0.46: well under 1, so traders hold noticeably more calls than puts on that date. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not.
Track record, 13 settled readings
100% inside
PURR closed inside its published expected range 100% of the time across every reading stored since 2026-09-04. One standard deviation should land near 68%; higher means the options were rich.
Realised vs expected
27%
The realised move averaged 4.04% against an expected ±15.22%. Breaches: 0 through the top, 0 through the bottom.
By days to expiry
2 to 7 days: 100% inside (6)
8 to 14 days: 100% inside (5)
8 to 14 days: 100% inside (5)
Readings grouped by how far before expiry they were taken. Machine-readable: /api/history/PURR; sitewide: track record.
Reading the PURR expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for PURR on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that PURR closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 11.61. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-16 range (±30.24%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-18 range (±13.21%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/PURR. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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