RIVN · expected move by expiry
Rivian Automotive is priced to move 6.9% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±6.86% move (about $1.10) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 14.75 to 16.95 from the last price of 16.07. Max pain for that expiry is 16.00.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Last
16.07 -0.73 (-4.3%)
Next expiry move
±6.86% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.52
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:55:07 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:55:07 AM ET
expected range last price 16.07 max painAxis 13 to 19, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
14.75
16.95
Expected move±6.86%±$1.10
Max pain16.000.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.52
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
14.21
17.31
Expected move±9.63%±$1.55
Max pain16.000.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.45
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
13.68
17.66
Expected move±12.41%±$1.99
Max pain15.006.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.43
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
13.38
17.95
Expected move±14.20%±$2.28
Max pain15.503.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.40
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
13.00
18.33
Expected move±16.58%±$2.66
Max pain15.503.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.29
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.12 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
16.00 / 16.50
Heaviest put open interest sits at 16.00 and heaviest call open interest at 16.50. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the RIVN expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for RIVN on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that RIVN closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 16.07. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±16.58%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±6.86%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/RIVN.
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