ABNB · expected move by expiry
Airbnb is priced to move 3.8% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±3.77% move (about $7.14) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 180.86 to 195.14 from the last price of 189.43. Max pain for that expiry is 180.00.
ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.
Last
189.43 +5.03 (2.7%)
Next expiry move
±3.77% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.92
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:51:23 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:51:23 AM ET
expected range last price 189.43 max painAxis 157 to 210, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
180.86
195.14
Expected move±3.77%±$7.14
Max pain180.005.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside67%put/call 0.92
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
177.35
197.48
Expected move±5.31%±$10.07
Max pain180.005.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.84
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
173.48
200.06
Expected move±7.02%±$13.29
Max pain160.0015.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.24
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
170.83
202.96
Expected move±8.48%±$16.06
Max pain182.503.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.97
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
168.46
206.87
Expected move±10.14%±$19.21
Max pain187.501.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.91
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score -0.16 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
187.50 / 190.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 187.50 and heaviest call open interest at 190.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the ABNB expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for ABNB on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that ABNB closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 189.43. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±10.14%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±3.77%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/ABNB.
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