XLY · expected move and max pain by expiry
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF is priced to move 2.0% by 2026-Oct-16, with max pain at 115.00.
Options price a ±2.00% move (about $2.24) by 2026-Oct-16 (Fri), a range of 109.98 to 114.47 from the last price of 112.22. Max pain for that expiry is 115.00.
XLY
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF
Last
112.22 -0.05 (-0.0%)
Next expiry move
±2.00% 3 days
Implied vol
20.0% 10 days
Put / call
1.51
Market open
Fetched 2026-10-13, 10:12:31 AM ET
Fetched 2026-10-13, 10:12:31 AM ET
expected range last price 112.22 max painAxis 104 to 121, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-16Fri, 3 days
109.98
114.47
Expected move±2.00%±$2.24
Max pain115.002.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside74%put/call 1.51
2026-Oct-23Fri, 10 days
108.51
115.94
Expected move±3.31%±$3.72
Max pain111.001.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.29
2026-Oct-30Fri, 17 days
107.31
117.14
Expected move±4.38%±$4.91
Max pain113.501.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call n/a, under 200 contracts traded
2026-Nov-06Fri, 24 days
105.50
118.95
Expected move±6.00%±$6.73
Max painn/atoo little open interest
Odds of closing inside68%put/call n/a, under 200 contracts traded
2026-Nov-13Fri, 31 days
104.48
119.97
Expected move±6.90%±$7.74
Max painn/atoo little open interest
Odds of closing inside68%put/call n/a, under 200 contracts traded
Key levels from open interest
109.00 / 115.00
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 109.00 and the heaviest call open interest at 115.00, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
XLY max pain by expiry
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's max pain for 2026-Oct-16 is 115.00, 2.5% above the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 115.00 | +2.5% | 1.51 |
| 2026-Oct-23 Fri | 111.00 | -1.1% | 0.29 |
| 2026-Oct-30 Fri | 113.50 | +1.1% | n/a |
| 2026-Nov-06 Fri | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2026-Nov-13 Fri | n/a | n/a | n/a |
XLY put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Oct-16 expiry is 1.51: above 1, so puts outnumber calls on that date. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Reading the XLY expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for XLY on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that XLY closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 112.22. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Nov-13 range (±6.90%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-16 range (±2.00%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/XLY. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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