SMMT · expected move and max pain by expiry
Summit Therapeutics is priced to move 5.4% by 2026-Oct-23, with max pain at 15.50.
Options price a ±5.41% move (about $0.84) by 2026-Oct-23 (Fri), a range of 14.71 to 16.39 from the last price of 15.55. Max pain for that expiry is 15.50.
SMMT
Summit Therapeutics Inc.
Last
15.55 -0.28 (-1.8%)
Next expiry move
±5.41% 1 day
Implied vol
114.6% 8 days
Put / call
0.19
Weekend
Fetched 2026-10-22, 05:53:18 PM ET
Fetched 2026-10-22, 05:53:18 PM ET
expected range last price 15.55 max painAxis 10 to 21, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-23Fri, 1 day
14.71
16.39
Expected move±5.41%±$0.84
Max pain15.500.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside66%put/call 0.19
2026-Oct-30Fri, 8 days
12.91
18.19
Expected move±16.97%±$2.64
Max pain16.002.9% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 7.90
2026-Nov-20Fri, 29 days
10.65
20.45
Expected move±31.48%±$4.90
Max pain16.002.9% above last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.53
Not shown: 2026-Nov-06 (no live bid and ask at the strikes around the price), 2026-Nov-13 (no live bid and ask at the strikes around the price). Those options are too thinly quoted to price a move honestly; each date appears once they are.
Key levels from open interest
15.50 / 16.00
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 15.50 and the heaviest call open interest at 16.00, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
SMMT max pain by expiry
Summit Therapeutics's max pain for 2026-Oct-23 is 15.50, 0.3% below the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-23 Fri | 15.50 | -0.3% | 0.19 |
| 2026-Oct-30 Fri | 16.00 | +2.9% | 7.90 |
| 2026-Nov-20 Fri | 16.00 | +2.9% | 0.53 |
SMMT put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Oct-23 expiry is 0.19: well under 1, so traders hold noticeably more calls than puts on that date. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Stayed in range, 12 forecasts
100%
SMMT finished inside the expected range we showed 100% of the time, across every forecast checked since 2026-Oct-02. Correctly priced options would give about 68%; higher means its options expected bigger moves than happened.
Moved vs expected
34%
How big SMMT's moves were compared with what its options priced in; 100% means priced right, below means overpriced. On average it moved 6.69% against an expected range of ±24.64%. Left the range: 0 up, 0 down. How this is worked out.
By days before expiry
15 to 35 days: 100% stayed in range (6)
Forecasts grouped by how many days before expiry they were made. Machine-readable: /api/history/SMMT; sitewide: track record.
Reading the SMMT expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for SMMT on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that SMMT closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 15.55. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Nov-20 range (±31.48%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-23 range (±5.41%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/SMMT. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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