SMH · expected move and max pain by expiry
VanEck Semiconductor ETF is priced to move 4.7% by 2026-Oct-05, with max pain at 605.00.
Options price a ±4.72% move (about $29.77) by 2026-Oct-05 (Mon), a range of 600.98 to 660.52 from the last price of 630.75. Max pain for that expiry is 605.00.
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Last
630.75 +12.94 (2.1%)
Next expiry move
±4.72% 3 days
Implied vol
24.9% 7 days
Put / call
0.40
Weekend
Fetched 2026-10-03, 12:00:42 AM ET
Fetched 2026-10-03, 12:00:42 AM ET
expected range last price 630.75 max painAxis 591 to 664, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-05Mon, 3 days
600.98
660.52
Expected move±4.72%±$29.77
Max pain605.004.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside98%put/call 0.40
2026-Oct-06Tue, 4 days
614.47
647.03
Expected move±2.58%±$16.28
Max pain600.004.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.30
2026-Oct-07Wed, 5 days
612.54
648.96
Expected move±2.89%±$18.21
Max pain595.005.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.39
2026-Oct-08Thu, 6 days
607.91
653.59
Expected move±3.62%±$22.84
Max pain605.004.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 7.75
2026-Oct-09Fri, 7 days
609.04
652.46
Expected move±3.44%±$21.71
Max pain597.505.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 14.72
Key levels from open interest
605.00 / 630.00
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 605.00 and the heaviest call open interest at 630.00, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
SMH max pain by expiry
VanEck Semiconductor ETF's max pain for 2026-Oct-05 is 605.00, 4.1% below the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-05 Mon | 605.00 | -4.1% | 0.40 |
| 2026-Oct-06 Tue | 600.00 | -4.9% | 1.30 |
| 2026-Oct-07 Wed | 595.00 | -5.7% | 1.39 |
| 2026-Oct-08 Thu | 605.00 | -4.1% | 7.75 |
| 2026-Oct-09 Fri | 597.50 | -5.3% | 14.72 |
SMH put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Oct-05 expiry is 0.40: well under 1, so traders hold noticeably more calls than puts on that date. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Reading the SMH expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for SMH on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that SMH closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 630.75. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-09 range (±3.44%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-05 range (±4.72%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/SMH. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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