MRNA · expected move by expiry
Moderna is priced to move 10.2% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±10.18% move (about $14.05) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 121.13 to 149.23 from the last price of 137.99. Max pain for that expiry is 138.00.
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
Last
137.99 -4.78 (-3.3%)
Next expiry move
±10.18% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.08
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:55:08 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:55:08 AM ET
expected range last price 137.99 max painAxis 96 to 166, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
121.13
149.23
Expected move±10.18%±$14.05
Max pain138.000.0% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.08
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
115.47
153.00
Expected move±13.60%±$18.77
Max pain135.002.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 3.43
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
109.79
156.79
Expected move±17.03%±$23.50
Max pain100.0027.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.65
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
104.56
160.28
Expected move±20.19%±$27.86
Max pain140.001.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.96
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
101.02
162.64
Expected move±22.33%±$30.81
Max pain115.0016.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.38
Options flow, nearest expiry
Constructive
Lean bullish - moderate positive flow Score 0.26 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
130.00 / 139.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 130.00 and heaviest call open interest at 139.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the MRNA expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for MRNA on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that MRNA closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 137.99. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±22.33%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±10.18%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/MRNA.
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