LLY · expected move by expiry
Eli Lilly and Company is priced to move 4.3% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±4.32% move (about $50.77) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 1113.68 to 1215.23 from the last price of 1174.61. Max pain for that expiry is 1195.00.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
Last
1174.61 -1.49 (-0.1%)
Next expiry move
±4.32% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.79
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:19 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:19 AM ET
expected range last price 1174.61 max painAxis 1013 to 1296, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
1113.68
1215.23
Expected move±4.32%±$50.77
Max pain1195.001.7% above last price
Odds of closing inside62%put/call 1.79
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
1079.44
1238.05
Expected move±6.75%±$79.30
Max pain1190.001.3% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 2.67
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
1059.76
1251.18
Expected move±8.15%±$95.71
Max pain1100.006.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.70
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
1040.13
1264.26
Expected move±9.54%±$112.06
Max pain1230.004.7% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.26
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
1027.89
1280.46
Expected move±10.75%±$126.28
Max pain1235.005.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.60
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score -0.07 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
1100.00 / 1250.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 1100.00 and heaviest call open interest at 1250.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the LLY expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for LLY on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that LLY closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 1174.61. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±10.75%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±4.32%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/LLY.
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