MCD · expected move by expiry
McDonald's is priced to move 3.1% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±3.05% move (about $8.09) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 255.29 to 271.48 from the last price of 265.00. Max pain for that expiry is 265.00.
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Last
265.00 +4.94 (1.9%)
Next expiry move
±3.05% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.59
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:28 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:28 AM ET
expected range last price 265.00 max painAxis 241 to 282, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
255.29
271.48
Expected move±3.05%±$8.09
Max pain265.000.0% above last price
Odds of closing inside73%put/call 0.59
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
253.47
272.69
Expected move±3.63%±$9.61
Max pain267.500.9% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.53
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
250.05
274.96
Expected move±4.70%±$12.45
Max pain275.003.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.41
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
246.21
277.53
Expected move±5.91%±$15.66
Max pain270.001.9% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.93
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
243.41
279.39
Expected move±6.79%±$17.99
Max pain265.000.0% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.09
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Lean bullish - moderate positive flow Score 0.21 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
265.00 pin
Heaviest put open interest sits at 265.00 and heaviest call open interest at 265.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the MCD expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for MCD on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that MCD closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 265.00. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±6.79%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±3.05%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/MCD.
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