XOM · expected move by expiry
ExxonMobil Holdings is priced to move 3.7% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±3.71% move (about $5.82) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 149.73 to 161.37 from the last price of 156.71. Max pain for that expiry is 160.00.
XOM
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
Last
156.71 +0.27 (0.2%)
Next expiry move
±3.71% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.36
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:54:08 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:54:08 AM ET
expected range last price 156.71 max painAxis 139 to 169, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
149.73
161.37
Expected move±3.71%±$5.82
Max pain160.002.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.36
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
147.07
163.14
Expected move±5.13%±$8.03
Max pain157.500.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.21
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
144.07
165.14
Expected move±6.72%±$10.53
Max pain150.004.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.30
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
142.08
166.46
Expected move±7.78%±$12.19
Max pain155.001.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.30
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
140.49
167.52
Expected move±8.63%±$13.52
Max pain160.002.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.48
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.12 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
155.00 / 160.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 155.00 and heaviest call open interest at 160.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the XOM expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for XOM on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that XOM closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 156.71. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±8.63%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±3.71%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/XOM.
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