XLE · expected move by expiry
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF is priced to move 1.6% by 2026-Aug-31.
Options price a ±1.58% move (about $0.99) by 2026-Aug-31 (Mon), a range of 61.47 to 63.45 from the last price of 62.66. Max pain for that expiry is 63.00.
XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
Last
62.66 +0.37 (0.6%)
Next expiry move
±1.58% 2 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.36
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:28 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:28 AM ET
expected range last price 62.66 max painAxis 56 to 67, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Aug-31Mon, 2 days
61.47
63.45
Expected move±1.58%±$0.99
Max pain63.000.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside42%put/call 1.36
2026-Sep-02Wed, 4 days
61.00
64.32
Expected move±2.66%±$1.66
Max pain62.001.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside55%put/call 0.89
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
60.18
64.31
Expected move±3.30%±$2.06
Max pain62.001.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside55%put/call 0.82
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
59.06
65.34
Expected move±5.01%±$3.14
Max pain61.002.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.70
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
56.81
66.56
Expected move±7.77%±$4.87
Max pain59.005.8% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 2.86
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score -0.01 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
62.00 / 63.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 62.00 and heaviest call open interest at 63.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Technical Breakout / Breakdown
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the XLE expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for XLE on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that XLE closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 62.66. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-18 range (±7.77%) is wider than the 2026-Aug-31 range (±1.58%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/XLE.
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