COP · expected move by expiry
ConocoPhillips is priced to move 3.8% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±3.84% move (about $5.00) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 124.34 to 134.35 from the last price of 130.35. Max pain for that expiry is 126.00.
COP
ConocoPhillips
Last
130.35 +0.83 (0.6%)
Next expiry move
±3.84% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.62
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:25 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:25 AM ET
expected range last price 130.35 max painAxis 116 to 145, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
124.34
134.35
Expected move±3.84%±$5.00
Max pain126.003.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.62
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
121.61
136.17
Expected move±5.59%±$7.28
Max pain125.004.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.13
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
119.56
137.54
Expected move±6.90%±$8.99
Max pain120.007.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.30
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
117.92
140.19
Expected move±8.54%±$11.14
Max pain126.003.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 2.42
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
117.51
143.19
Expected move±9.85%±$12.84
Max pain127.002.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.48
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score -0.20 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
129.00 / 131.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 129.00 and heaviest call open interest at 131.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Reversal Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the COP expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for COP on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that COP closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 130.35. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±9.85%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±3.84%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/COP.
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