TSM · expected move by expiry
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is priced to move 4.1% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±4.14% move (about $17.28) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 396.79 to 431.34 from the last price of 417.52. Max pain for that expiry is 417.50.
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Last
417.52 -9.78 (-2.3%)
Next expiry move
±4.14% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.67
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:20 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:20 AM ET
expected range last price 417.52 max painAxis 362 to 456, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
396.79
431.34
Expected move±4.14%±$17.28
Max pain417.500.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.67
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
388.64
436.77
Expected move±5.76%±$24.07
Max pain425.001.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.40
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
380.19
442.41
Expected move±7.45%±$31.11
Max pain410.001.8% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.62
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
374.19
446.41
Expected move±8.65%±$36.11
Max pain420.000.6% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.44
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
367.39
450.94
Expected move±10.01%±$41.78
Max pain425.001.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 2.24
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.02 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
400.00 / 422.50
Heaviest put open interest sits at 400.00 and heaviest call open interest at 422.50. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the TSM expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for TSM on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that TSM closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 417.52. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±10.01%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±4.14%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/TSM.
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