ORCL · expected move by expiry
Oracle is priced to move 6.9% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±6.88% move (about $10.38) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 138.40 to 159.15 from the last price of 150.85. Max pain for that expiry is 145.00.
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
Last
150.85 -1.09 (-0.7%)
Next expiry move
±6.88% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.56
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:03 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:03 AM ET
expected range last price 150.85 max painAxis 117 to 184, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
138.40
159.15
Expected move±6.88%±$10.38
Max pain145.003.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside71%put/call 0.56
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
128.25
173.45
Expected move±14.98%±$22.60
Max pain145.003.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.92
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
125.30
176.40
Expected move±16.94%±$25.55
Max pain155.002.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.49
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
123.18
178.52
Expected move±18.34%±$27.67
Max pain149.001.2% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.71
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
121.07
180.63
Expected move±19.74%±$29.78
Max pain144.004.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.93
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Bearish - options flow points to downside Score -0.41 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
150.00 / 155.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 150.00 and heaviest call open interest at 155.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Technical Breakout / Breakdown
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the ORCL expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for ORCL on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that ORCL closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 150.85. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±19.74%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±6.88%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/ORCL.
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