IBM · expected move by expiry
International Business Machines is priced to move 4.1% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±4.09% move (about $9.64) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 224.02 to 243.30 from the last price of 235.59. Max pain for that expiry is 230.00.
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
Last
235.59 -3.20 (-1.3%)
Next expiry move
±4.09% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.73
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:23 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:23 AM ET
expected range last price 235.59 max painAxis 205 to 261, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
224.02
243.30
Expected move±4.09%±$9.64
Max pain230.002.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.73
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
219.26
246.48
Expected move±5.78%±$13.61
Max pain230.002.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.75
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
213.93
250.03
Expected move±7.66%±$18.05
Max pain230.002.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.31
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
211.48
251.67
Expected move±8.53%±$20.09
Max pain235.000.3% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.64
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
208.14
257.64
Expected move±10.51%±$24.75
Max pain230.002.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.43
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Lean bearish - moderate negative flow Score -0.27 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
227.50 / 240.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 227.50 and heaviest call open interest at 240.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the IBM expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for IBM on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that IBM closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 235.59. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±10.51%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±4.09%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/IBM.
Other tickers