AMAT · expected move by expiry
Applied Materials is priced to move 6.5% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±6.46% move (about $29.82) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 425.88 to 485.53 from the last price of 461.67. Max pain for that expiry is 487.50.
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.
Last
461.67 -20.69 (-4.3%)
Next expiry move
±6.46% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.15
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:47:57 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:47:57 AM ET
expected range last price 461.67 max painAxis 375 to 541, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
425.88
485.53
Expected move±6.46%±$29.82
Max pain487.505.6% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.15
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
410.47
495.81
Expected move±9.24%±$42.67
Max pain525.0013.7% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.90
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
395.71
505.65
Expected move±11.91%±$54.97
Max pain470.001.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.06
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
391.70
520.57
Expected move±13.96%±$64.43
Max pain490.006.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 2.34
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
383.83
532.06
Expected move±16.05%±$74.12
Max pain510.0010.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.23
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Expensive options, selling pressure likely Score 0.14 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
450.00 / 485.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 450.00 and heaviest call open interest at 485.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the AMAT expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for AMAT on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that AMAT closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 461.67. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±16.05%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±6.46%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/AMAT.
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