COST · expected move by expiry
Costco Wholesale is priced to move 2.8% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±2.78% move (about $26.29) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 913.92 to 966.50 from the last price of 945.47. Max pain for that expiry is 950.00.
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Last
945.47 +10.81 (1.2%)
Next expiry move
±2.78% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.95
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:53:13 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:53:13 AM ET
expected range last price 945.47 max painAxis 848 to 1014, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
913.92
966.50
Expected move±2.78%±$26.29
Max pain950.000.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside71%put/call 0.95
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
898.92
976.50
Expected move±4.10%±$38.79
Max pain950.000.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.88
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
890.07
982.40
Expected move±4.88%±$46.17
Max pain940.000.6% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.09
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
867.07
997.74
Expected move±6.91%±$65.33
Max pain955.001.0% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 2.84
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
856.56
1005.03
Expected move±7.85%±$74.23
Max pain1000.005.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 3.50
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Lean bullish - moderate positive flow Score 0.23 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
930.00 / 950.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 930.00 and heaviest call open interest at 950.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the COST expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for COST on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that COST closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 945.47. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±7.85%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±2.78%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/COST.
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