CAT · expected move by expiry
Caterpillar is priced to move 4.7% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±4.70% move (about $37.58) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 755.15 to 830.31 from the last price of 800.25. Max pain for that expiry is 810.00.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
Last
800.25 -16.75 (-2.1%)
Next expiry move
±4.70% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.71
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:25 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:49:25 AM ET
expected range last price 800.25 max painAxis 689 to 899, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
755.15
830.31
Expected move±4.70%±$37.58
Max pain810.001.2% above last price
Odds of closing inside65%put/call 1.71
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
731.37
846.17
Expected move±7.17%±$57.40
Max pain830.003.7% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 2.48
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
713.52
858.07
Expected move±9.03%±$72.28
Max pain800.000.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.00
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
704.68
871.32
Expected move±10.41%±$83.32
Max pain830.003.7% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.55
2026-Oct-02Fri, 34 days
700.62
887.62
Expected move±11.68%±$93.50
Max pain850.006.2% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.45
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Lean bearish - moderate negative flow Score -0.35 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
800.00 / 825.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 800.00 and heaviest call open interest at 825.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Technical Breakout / Breakdown
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the CAT expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for CAT on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that CAT closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 800.25. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-02 range (±11.68%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±4.70%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/CAT.
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