AXP · expected move and max pain by expiry
American Express Company is priced to move 2.2% by 2026-Oct-16, with max pain at 310.00.
Options price a ±2.24% move (about $6.84) by 2026-Oct-16 (Fri), a range of 298.94 to 312.61 from the last price of 305.77. Max pain for that expiry is 310.00.
AXP
American Express Company
Last
305.77 -4.06 (-1.3%)
Next expiry move
±2.24% 2 days
Implied vol
37.0% 9 days
Put / call
0.78
Market open
Fetched 2026-10-14, 03:40:11 PM ET
Fetched 2026-10-14, 03:40:11 PM ET
expected range last price 305.77 max painAxis 277 to 335, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-16Fri, 2 days
298.94
312.61
Expected move±2.24%±$6.84
Max pain310.001.4% above last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.78
2026-Oct-23Fri, 9 days
288.02
323.53
Expected move±5.81%±$17.76
Max pain310.001.4% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.93
2026-Oct-30Fri, 16 days
284.45
327.10
Expected move±6.98%±$21.33
Max pain310.001.4% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.07
2026-Nov-06Fri, 23 days
282.49
329.06
Expected move±7.62%±$23.28
Max pain310.001.4% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.34
2026-Nov-13Fri, 30 days
279.78
331.77
Expected move±8.50%±$26.00
Max pain310.001.4% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call n/a, under 200 contracts traded
Key levels from open interest
300.00 / 312.50
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 300.00 and the heaviest call open interest at 312.50, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
AXP max pain by expiry
American Express Company's max pain for 2026-Oct-16 is 310.00, 1.4% above the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 310.00 | +1.4% | 0.78 |
| 2026-Oct-23 Fri | 310.00 | +1.4% | 0.93 |
| 2026-Oct-30 Fri | 310.00 | +1.4% | 1.07 |
| 2026-Nov-06 Fri | 310.00 | +1.4% | 0.34 |
| 2026-Nov-13 Fri | 310.00 | +1.4% | n/a |
AXP put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Oct-16 expiry is 0.78: close to even between puts and calls. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Stayed in range, 13 forecasts
100%
AXP finished inside the expected range we showed 100% of the time, across every forecast checked since 2026-Oct-02. Correctly priced options would give about 68%; higher means its options expected bigger moves than happened.
Moved vs expected
45%
How big AXP's moves were compared with what its options priced in; 100% means priced right, below means overpriced. On average it moved 1.06% against an expected range of ±2.97%. Left the range: 0 up, 0 down. How this is worked out.
By days before expiry
2 to 7 days: 100% stayed in range (7)
Forecasts grouped by how many days before expiry they were made. Machine-readable: /api/history/AXP; sitewide: track record.
Reading the AXP expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for AXP on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that AXP closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 305.77. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Nov-13 range (±8.50%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-16 range (±2.24%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/AXP. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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