XLRE · expected move and max pain by expiry
State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF is priced to move 2.8% by 2026-Oct-16, with max pain at 42.00.
Options price a ±2.83% move (about $1.18) by 2026-Oct-16 (Fri), a range of 40.53 to 42.89 from the last price of 41.71. Max pain for that expiry is 42.00.
XLRE
State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF
Last
41.71 -0.21 (-0.5%)
Next expiry move
±2.83% 3 days
Implied vol
16.2% 38 days
Put / call
n/a under 200 contracts traded
Market open
Fetched 2026-10-13, 10:10:57 AM ET
Fetched 2026-10-13, 10:10:57 AM ET
expected range last price 41.71 max painAxis 30 to 54, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-16Fri, 3 days
40.53
42.89
Expected move±2.83%±$1.18
Max pain42.000.7% above last price
Odds of closing inside71%put/call n/a, under 200 contracts traded
2026-Nov-20Fri, 38 days
39.52
43.90
Expected move±5.24%±$2.19
Max pain41.001.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.43
2027-Jan-15Fri, 94 days
38.82
44.60
Expected move±6.94%±$2.89
Max pain41.001.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.13
2027-Feb-19Fri, 129 days
37.28
46.14
Expected move±10.62%±$4.43
Max pain44.005.5% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call n/a, under 200 contracts traded
2027-May-21Fri, 220 days
31.16
52.26
Expected move±25.29%±$10.55
Max painn/atoo little open interest
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 0.02
Key levels from open interest
41.00 / 44.00
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 41.00 and the heaviest call open interest at 44.00, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
XLRE max pain by expiry
State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF's max pain for 2026-Oct-16 is 42.00, 0.7% above the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 42.00 | +0.7% | n/a |
| 2026-Nov-20 Fri | 41.00 | -1.7% | 1.43 |
| 2027-Jan-15 Fri | 41.00 | -1.7% | 0.13 |
| 2027-Feb-19 Fri | 44.00 | +5.5% | n/a |
| 2027-May-21 Fri | n/a | n/a | 0.02 |
XLRE put/call ratio
Reading the XLRE expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for XLRE on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that XLRE closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 41.71. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2027-May-21 range (±25.29%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-16 range (±2.83%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/XLRE. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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