TLT · expected move by expiry
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is priced to move 0.8% by 2026-Aug-31.
Options price a ±0.75% move (about $0.62) by 2026-Aug-31 (Mon), a range of 82.13 to 83.37 from the last price of 82.88. Max pain for that expiry is 82.50.
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Last
82.88 -0.25 (-0.3%)
Next expiry move
±0.75% 2 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
0.51
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:32 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:48:32 AM ET
expected range last price 82.88 max painAxis 80 to 85, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Aug-31Mon, 2 days
82.13
83.37
Expected move±0.75%±$0.62
Max pain82.500.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside82%put/call 0.51
2026-Sep-02Wed, 4 days
81.42
83.85
Expected move±1.46%±$1.21
Max pain82.500.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside81%put/call 1.54
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
81.31
83.92
Expected move±1.57%±$1.30
Max pain83.000.2% above last price
Odds of closing inside72%put/call 0.21
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
80.97
84.14
Expected move±1.91%±$1.58
Max pain82.500.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.35
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
80.46
84.49
Expected move±2.43%±$2.02
Max pain83.000.2% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.82
Options flow, nearest expiry
Caution
Bearish - options flow points to downside Score -0.69 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
83.00 pin
Heaviest put open interest sits at 83.00 and heaviest call open interest at 83.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Technical Breakout / Breakdown
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the TLT expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for TLT on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that TLT closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 82.88. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-18 range (±2.43%) is wider than the 2026-Aug-31 range (±0.75%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/TLT.
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