TLT · expected move and max pain by expiry
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is priced to move 0.9% by 2026-Oct-14, with max pain at 77.50.
Options price a ±0.93% move (about $0.73) by 2026-Oct-14 (Wed), a range of 77.64 to 79.10 from the last price of 78.37. Max pain for that expiry is 77.50.
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Last
78.37 +0.32 (0.4%)
Next expiry move
±0.93% 1 day
Implied vol
14.1% 7 days
Put / call
0.89
Pre-market
Fetched 2026-10-14, 04:37:03 AM ET
Fetched 2026-10-14, 04:37:03 AM ET
expected range last price 78.37 max painAxis 76 to 80, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-14Wed, 1 day
77.64
79.10
Expected move±0.93%±$0.73
Max pain77.501.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside71%put/call 0.89
2026-Oct-16Fri, 2 days
77.21
79.53
Expected move±1.48%±$1.16
Max pain79.000.8% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.49
2026-Oct-19Mon, 5 days
77.10
79.64
Expected move±1.62%±$1.27
Max pain77.501.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.63
2026-Oct-21Wed, 7 days
76.84
79.90
Expected move±1.95%±$1.53
Max pain77.501.1% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.25
2026-Oct-23Fri, 9 days
76.63
80.11
Expected move±2.22%±$1.74
Max pain78.000.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.59
Key levels from open interest
77.50 / 78.50
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 77.50 and the heaviest call open interest at 78.50, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
TLT max pain by expiry
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF's max pain for 2026-Oct-14 is 77.50, 1.1% below the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-14 Wed | 77.50 | -1.1% | 0.89 |
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 79.00 | +0.8% | 0.49 |
| 2026-Oct-19 Mon | 77.50 | -1.1% | 1.63 |
| 2026-Oct-21 Wed | 77.50 | -1.1% | 1.25 |
| 2026-Oct-23 Fri | 78.00 | -0.5% | 0.59 |
TLT put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Oct-14 expiry is 0.89: close to even between puts and calls. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Stayed in range, 33 forecasts
100%
TLT finished inside the expected range we showed 100% of the time, across every forecast checked since 2026-Sep-30. Correctly priced options would give about 68%; higher means its options expected bigger moves than happened.
Moved vs expected
55%
How big TLT's moves were compared with what its options priced in; 100% means priced right, below means overpriced. On average it moved 0.79% against an expected range of ±1.82%. Left the range: 0 up, 0 down. How this is worked out.
By days before expiry
2 to 7 days: 100% stayed in range (22)
8 to 14 days: 100% stayed in range (7)
8 to 14 days: 100% stayed in range (7)
Forecasts grouped by how many days before expiry they were made. Machine-readable: /api/history/TLT; sitewide: track record.
Reading the TLT expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for TLT on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that TLT closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 78.37. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-23 range (±2.22%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-14 range (±0.93%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/TLT. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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