DIA · expected move by expiry
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust is priced to move 1.6% by 2026-Sep-04.
Options price a ±1.61% move (about $8.63) by 2026-Sep-04 (Fri), a range of 526.41 to 543.67 from the last price of 535.04. Max pain for that expiry is 535.00.
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Last
535.04 -0.18 (-0.0%)
Next expiry move
±1.61% 6 days
Vol regime
Low
Put / call
1.14
Weekend
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:36:47 AM ET
Fetched 2026-08-30, 02:36:47 AM ET
expected range last price 535.04 max painAxis 497 to 556, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Sep-04Fri, 6 days
526.41
543.67
Expected move±1.61%±$8.63
Max pain535.000.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside77%put/call 1.14
2026-Sep-11Fri, 13 days
524.57
545.51
Expected move±1.96%±$10.47
Max pain533.000.4% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 2.03
2026-Sep-18Fri, 20 days
520.85
549.23
Expected move±2.65%±$14.19
Max pain515.003.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.08
2026-Sep-25Fri, 27 days
518.38
551.70
Expected move±3.11%±$16.66
Max pain530.000.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.49
2026-Sep-30Wed, 32 days
516.87
553.21
Expected move±3.40%±$18.17
Max pain500.006.5% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 1.87
Options flow, nearest expiry
Neutral
Lean bearish - moderate negative flow Score -0.23 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Key levels from open interest
532.00 / 540.00
Heaviest put open interest sits at 532.00 and heaviest call open interest at 540.00. Price tends to gravitate toward large open interest into expiry.
Setup
Pre-Earnings / IV Spike Setup
Read from implied volatility, momentum and breakout signals across the chain. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Reading the DIA expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for DIA on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that DIA closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 535.04. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Sep-30 range (±3.40%) is wider than the 2026-Sep-04 range (±1.61%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/DIA.
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