XLB · expected move and max pain by expiry
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF is priced to move 2.2% by 2026-Oct-16, with max pain at 50.00.
Options price a ±2.16% move (about $1.07) by 2026-Oct-16 (Fri), a range of 48.39 to 50.52 from the last price of 49.45. Max pain for that expiry is 50.00.
XLB
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF
Last
49.45 +0.02 (0.0%)
Next expiry move
±2.16% 3 days
Implied vol
22.2% 10 days
Put / call
1.39
Market open
Fetched 2026-10-13, 10:12:59 AM ET
Fetched 2026-10-13, 10:12:59 AM ET
expected range last price 49.45 max painAxis 46 to 53, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-16Fri, 3 days
48.39
50.52
Expected move±2.16%±$1.07
Max pain50.001.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside60%put/call 1.39
2026-Oct-23Fri, 10 days
47.63
51.28
Expected move±3.68%±$1.82
Max pain50.001.1% above last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 4.16
2026-Oct-30Fri, 17 days
46.99
51.92
Expected move±4.98%±$2.46
Max pain49.000.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call 0.78
2026-Nov-06Fri, 24 days
47.10
51.81
Expected move±4.76%±$2.36
Max pain48.002.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside68%put/call n/a, under 200 contracts traded
2026-Nov-13Fri, 31 days
46.47
52.44
Expected move±6.04%±$2.98
Max painn/atoo little open interest
Odds of closing inside68%put/call n/a, under 200 contracts traded
Key levels from open interest
48.00 / 52.00
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 48.00 and the heaviest call open interest at 52.00, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
XLB max pain by expiry
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF's max pain for 2026-Oct-16 is 50.00, 1.1% above the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 50.00 | +1.1% | 1.39 |
| 2026-Oct-23 Fri | 50.00 | +1.1% | 4.16 |
| 2026-Oct-30 Fri | 49.00 | -0.9% | 0.78 |
| 2026-Nov-06 Fri | 48.00 | -2.9% | n/a |
| 2026-Nov-13 Fri | n/a | n/a | n/a |
XLB put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Oct-16 expiry is 1.39: above 1, so puts outnumber calls on that date. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Reading the XLB expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for XLB on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that XLB closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 49.45. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Nov-13 range (±6.04%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-16 range (±2.16%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/XLB. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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