SOXX · expected move and max pain by expiry
iShares Semiconductor ETF is priced to move 22.7% by 2027-Jan-15.
Options price a ±22.71% move (about $31.01) by 2027-Jan-15 (Fri), a range of 105.52 to 167.54 from the last price of 136.53. Max pain for that expiry is n/a (too little open interest).
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Last
136.53 +4.63 (3.5%)
Next expiry move
±22.71% 68 days
Implied vol
52.6% 68 days
Put / call
1.07
Weekend
Fetched 2026-11-08, 08:23:04 AM ET
Fetched 2026-11-08, 08:23:04 AM ET
expected range last price 136.53 max painAxis 102 to 171, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2027-Jan-15Fri, 68 days
105.52
167.54
Expected move±22.71%±$31.01
Max painn/atoo little open interest
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.07
Not shown: 2026-Nov-13 (no strike quoted below the price yet), 2026-Nov-20 (no strike quoted below the price yet), 2026-Nov-27 (no strike quoted below the price yet), 2026-Dec-04 (no strike quoted below the price yet), 2026-Dec-11 (no strike quoted below the price yet), 2026-Dec-18 (no strike quoted below the price yet), 2027-Feb-19 (no strike quoted below the price yet), 2027-Mar-19 (no strike quoted below the price yet). Those options are too thinly quoted to price a move honestly; each date appears once they are.
Key levels from open interest
110.00 / 150.00
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 110.00 and the heaviest call open interest at 150.00, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
SOXX max pain by expiry
iShares Semiconductor ETF's max pain for 2027-Jan-15 is n/a (too little open interest). It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-Jan-15 Fri | n/a | n/a | 1.07 |
SOXX put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2027-Jan-15 expiry is 1.07: close to even between puts and calls. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Stayed in range, 92 forecasts
20%
SOXX finished inside the expected range we showed 20% of the time, across every forecast checked since 2026-Oct-02. Correctly priced options would give about 68%; higher means its options expected bigger moves than happened.
Moved vs expected
428%
How big SOXX's moves were compared with what its options priced in; 100% means priced right, below means overpriced. On average it moved 25.35% against an expected range of ±7.42%. Left the range: 4 up, 70 down. How this is worked out.
By days before expiry
1 day: 40% stayed in range (5)
2 to 7 days: 29% stayed in range (21)
8 to 14 days: 33% stayed in range (24)
15 to 35 days: 5% stayed in range (42)
2 to 7 days: 29% stayed in range (21)
8 to 14 days: 33% stayed in range (24)
15 to 35 days: 5% stayed in range (42)
Forecasts grouped by how many days before expiry they were made. Machine-readable: /api/history/SOXX; sitewide: track record.
Reading the SOXX expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for SOXX on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that SOXX closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 136.53. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2027-Jan-15 range (±22.71%) is wider than the 2027-Jan-15 range (±22.71%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/SOXX. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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