IBIT · expected move and max pain by expiry
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is priced to move 1.1% by 2026-Oct-13, with max pain at 47.00.
Options price a ±1.10% move (about $0.52) by 2026-Oct-13 (Tue), a range of 46.81 to 47.86 from the last price of 47.34. Max pain for that expiry is 47.00.
IBIT
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
Last
47.34 +0.48 (1.0%)
Next expiry move
±1.10% 1 day
Implied vol
21.1% 1 days
Put / call
1.11
After hours
Fetched 2026-10-13, 11:24:18 AM ET
Fetched 2026-10-13, 11:24:18 AM ET
expected range last price 47.34 max painAxis 44 to 50, shared by every row
Expiry
Expected range (1 SD)
Expected move
Max pain
Odds inside
2026-Oct-13Tue, 1 day
46.81
47.86
Expected move±1.10%±$0.52
Max pain47.000.7% below last price
Odds of closing inside78%put/call 1.11
2026-Oct-14Wed, 1 day
46.32
48.35
Expected move±2.15%±$1.02
Max pain47.500.3% above last price
Odds of closing inside71%put/call 1.10
2026-Oct-15Thu, 2 days
45.93
48.74
Expected move±2.98%±$1.41
Max pain45.004.9% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 0.50
2026-Oct-16Fri, 3 days
45.75
48.92
Expected move±3.36%±$1.59
Max pain44.506.0% below last price
Odds of closing inside70%put/call 1.16
2026-Oct-19Mon, 6 days
45.38
49.29
Expected move±4.13%±$1.96
Max pain47.500.3% above last price
Odds of closing inside69%put/call 1.64
Key levels from open interest
46.00 / 48.00
The heaviest put open interest near the price sits at 46.00 and the heaviest call open interest at 48.00, weighted toward strikes close to the last price. Price sometimes gravitates toward large open interest into expiry.
IBIT max pain by expiry
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF's max pain for 2026-Oct-13 is 47.00, 0.7% below the last price. It is the strike at which the calls and puts open for that expiry would pay out the least in total, computed from open interest. Price sometimes drifts toward it in the final session because of dealer hedging; treat it as a reference level, not a target. How max pain is calculated.
| Expiry | Max pain | From last price | Put/call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Oct-13 Tue | 47.00 | -0.7% | 1.11 |
| 2026-Oct-14 Wed | 47.50 | +0.3% | 1.10 |
| 2026-Oct-15 Thu | 45.00 | -4.9% | 0.50 |
| 2026-Oct-16 Fri | 44.50 | -6.0% | 1.16 |
| 2026-Oct-19 Mon | 47.50 | +0.3% | 1.64 |
IBIT put/call ratio
The put/call ratio for the 2026-Oct-13 expiry is 1.11: close to even between puts and calls. Readings well below 0.7 are often read as complacent and above 1.2 as fearful, and extremes are sometimes taken as contrarian signals, but on index products like SPY a high ratio is normal because puts are bought as insurance. It is a sentiment gauge, not a direction call. What the ratio measures and what it does not, or compare it with every tracked stock's put/call ratio today.
Reading the IBIT expected move table
Each row is one expiry. The shaded band is the one-standard-deviation range the option chain implies for IBIT on that date: the market gives roughly a two-in-three chance that IBIT closes inside it and a one-in-three chance it closes outside. The black tick is the last traded price, 47.34. The diamond is max pain, the strike where option holders would collect the least if the stock settled there.
The range widens with time because uncertainty compounds with the square root of time: the 2026-Oct-19 range (±4.13%) is wider than the 2026-Oct-13 range (±1.10%) even though the daily volatility behind both is the same. Read the methodology for the formulas, or the guide to what the expected move means in practice.
Figures are derived from delayed public option data and recalculated through the trading day. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Machine-readable version: /api/expected-move/IBIT. Every ticker the site tracks is listed at /stocks.
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